This chart tracks the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. The number tells you how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the Dow on any given month. Previous cycle lows have been 1.94 ounces in February of 1933 and 1.29 ounces in January of 1980.
This chart compares the four largest market bubbles of the last 100 years. It includes the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the 20s, gold in the 70s, technology stocks in the 90s and the recent oil price bubble.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the three major secular market cycles of the last 100 years. Each graph line begins and ends at the lowest point of the cycle.
This chart shows the ratio of gold (priced in dollars) to the S&P 500 market index. This ratio is a good indicator of investor confidence in the dollar/fiat currency system. A low ratio signifies high confidence (gold low, S&P high) and a high ratio signals a lack of confidence (gold high, S&P low). The ratio hit its peak of 5.94 back in January of 1980 when gold briefly traded over $800 an ounce.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the FHFA Housing Index, Gold, Oil and the NASDAQ since 1976. The world financial system moved from the relative discipline of the gold-dollar, fixed-currency standard to a system of free-floating currencies in 1973. This move unleashed a series of asset pricing bubbles over the subsequent decades.
This chart compares the price of crude oil versus the level of the S&P 500. In 2008, it was the S&P that refused to confirm the final spike in commodity prices whereas in 2015, oil is the asset class that is indicating that global deflationary forces are setting in.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) to the price of gold bullion back to 1983. The 6 and 12 month moving averages have been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
Historical data comparing the level of gross domestic product (GDP) with 1) Total US Credit Market Debt and 2) Federal Debt. The ratio using federal debt is the more traditional measurement, but the total credit market debt is a better comparison since GDP is a product of both public and private output, hence both public and private debt should be used as a numerator.
Compares the annual dollar growth in total new debt (public and private) against the S&P 500 level. This chart illustrates how the 2003-2007 market rally benefited from massive new debt creation, peaking at roughly $4.7 trillion annually in December of 2007. Each series is adjusted for inflation via the headline CPI and smoothed using a 3-month moving average.
This chart compares the early stage secular bull market in gold that began in April of 2001 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average secular bull market that began back in May of 1982. Since the dow and gold tend to move in a counter-cyclical fashion, it would seem to indicate that the Dow bull market is on its last legs while the gold bull run could have quite a long way to go yet.
This chart tracks the three primary secular cycles of the Dow to Gold ratio, smoothed with a 3-month moving average. The cycles are measured by how many ounces the ratio increased from the previous low. The most striking aspect of this chart is that each previous cycle dropped below zero before hitting bottom.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the S&P 500 over the three major secular market cycles of the last 100 years. Each graph line begins and ends at the lowest point of the cycle and is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI.
This chart illustrates the effect inflation had on the perceived returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the 1970s. While the market went sideways in nominal terms, it dropped significantly in real terms.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) to the price of gold bullion back to 1996. The 6 month moving average has been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart shows the S&P 500 annual % change compared to the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury (Yield Curve) using standard deviation and a 6-month moving average. The yield curve leads the S&P by roughly 24 months and has been shifted backwards by that amount to illustrate how closely the two indicators track together.
In 1983, the BLS dropped a complex method for calculating monthly housing costs and moved to a rental equivalent method. The price of housing would now be framed as what monthly payment you could expect to receive if you were renting your home in the current market. While this may have simplified the calculation and removed volatility, it completely missed the housing bubble as seen on this chart.