Compares the movement in the real dollar index with gold and oil prices since 1974. The oil and gold series are adjusted for CPI inflation and the real dollar index is adjusted for the relevant trading partners own currency inflation rates.
This chart tracks the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. The number tells you how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the Dow on any given month. Previous cycle lows have been 1.94 ounces in February of 1933 and 1.29 ounces in January of 1980.
Graph of historical data comparing the three price-adjusted U.S. dollar indices published by the Federal Reserve. Each index is adjusted for the aggregated home inflation rates of all included currencies. The price adjustment is especially important with our Asian and South American trading partners due to their significant inflation episodes of the 80s and 90s.
This chart compares three different measures of unemployment. U3 is the official unemployment rate. U5 includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached workers. U6 adds on those workers who are part-time purely for economic reasons.
This chart tracks the current and historical ratio of gold prices to silver prices. Historical data goes back to 1915. The 5 year and 10 year moving averages have been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart compares the four largest market bubbles of the last 100 years. It includes the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the 20s, gold in the 70s, technology stocks in the 90s and the recent oil price bubble.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the three major secular market cycles of the last 100 years. Each graph line begins and ends at the lowest point of the cycle.
This chart shows the ratio of gold (priced in dollars) to the S&P 500 market index. This ratio is a good indicator of investor confidence in the dollar/fiat currency system. A low ratio signifies high confidence (gold low, S&P high) and a high ratio signals a lack of confidence (gold high, S&P low). The ratio hit its peak of 5.94 back in January of 1980 when gold briefly traded over $800 an ounce.
This chart tracks the the performance of gold since July of 2002 against the three largest bubbles of the last 40 years. Past bubbles have shown strong but steady growth for the first 7-8 years before moving into a hyper-growth phase for the last 18-24 months. Each series is adjusted for inflation and is smoothed with a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the FHFA Housing Index, Gold, Oil and the NASDAQ since 1976. The world financial system moved from the relative discipline of the gold-dollar, fixed-currency standard to a system of free-floating currencies in 1973. This move unleashed a series of asset pricing bubbles over the subsequent decades.
This chart compares the price of crude oil versus the level of the S&P 500. In 2008, it was the S&P that refused to confirm the final spike in commodity prices whereas in 2015, oil is the asset class that is indicating that global deflationary forces are setting in.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) to the price of gold bullion back to 1983. The 6 and 12 month moving averages have been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart tracks the TED Spread (3 Month LIBOR / 3 Month Treasury Bill) as a measure of the perceived credit risk in the U.S. economy. LIBOR measures the interbank lending rate so as the spread between LIBOR and the T-bill rate increases, it shows an accelerating lack of trust between banks and a corresponding tightening of credit for all other counterparties.
Historical data comparing the level of gross domestic product (GDP) with 1) Total US Credit Market Debt and 2) Federal Debt. The ratio using federal debt is the more traditional measurement, but the total credit market debt is a better comparison since GDP is a product of both public and private output, hence both public and private debt should be used as a numerator.
This chart shows the relationship between oil prices and inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The comparison is made using standard deviation and both series are smoothed using a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level.
Compares the annual dollar growth in total new debt (public and private) against the S&P 500 level. This chart illustrates how the 2003-2007 market rally benefited from massive new debt creation, peaking at roughly $4.7 trillion annually in December of 2007. Each series is adjusted for inflation via the headline CPI and smoothed using a 3-month moving average.
This chart compares the early stage secular bull market in gold that began in April of 2001 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average secular bull market that began back in May of 1982. Since the dow and gold tend to move in a counter-cyclical fashion, it would seem to indicate that the Dow bull market is on its last legs while the gold bull run could have quite a long way to go yet.
This chart tracks the three primary secular cycles of the Dow to Gold ratio, smoothed with a 3-month moving average. The cycles are measured by how many ounces the ratio increased from the previous low. The most striking aspect of this chart is that each previous cycle dropped below zero before hitting bottom.
This chart compares the percentage growth since February 2009 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average against the increase in size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet through multiple phases of quantitative easing (QE).
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the S&P 500 over the three major secular market cycles of the last 100 years. Each graph line begins and ends at the lowest point of the cycle and is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI.
This chart illustrates the effect inflation had on the perceived returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the 1970s. While the market went sideways in nominal terms, it dropped significantly in real terms.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) to the price of gold bullion back to 1996. The 6 month moving average has been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart shows the S&P 500 annual % change compared to the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury (Yield Curve) using standard deviation and a 6-month moving average. The yield curve leads the S&P by roughly 24 months and has been shifted backwards by that amount to illustrate how closely the two indicators track together.
This chart compares the national unemployment rate, the ISM employment index and initial claims for unemployment using standard deviation. The unemployment rate and jobless claims are shown as an annual % change and all series use a six-month moving average to smooth out volatility.
This chart compares the percentage change in non-farm payrolls with the percentage change in the consumer price index starting in January of 1939. The two track closely together for over 30 years, until they begin to significantly diverge around 1970. This coincides with the collapse of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1971 and the move to a floating currency exchange system.
This graph compares historical data for the two primary core measures of inflation in the U.S. Core inflation removes the volatile food and energy components in an attempt to better understand whether price pressures are leaking into the more stable price categories such as housing and medical costs.
This chart compares the annual dollar issuance of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) with the rise in U.S. housing prices as measured by the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index. The two series are adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and are compared using standard deviation.
This chart shows the CPI-adjusted five year dollar change in total debt and gross domestic product. Since about 1975, the U.S. economy has required more and more new debt to generate an incremental dollar of GDP.
In 1983, the BLS dropped a complex method for calculating monthly housing costs and moved to a rental equivalent method. The price of housing would now be framed as what monthly payment you could expect to receive if you were renting your home in the current market. While this may have simplified the calculation and removed volatility, it completely missed the housing bubble as seen on this chart.
Tracks the 100 year history of inflation in the U.S. using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index for All Commodities (PPI). Values shown are the 12 month percentage change for each series.
This chart compares the three primary, long-term measures of housing prices in the U.S.: the S&P Case-Shiller 10-City HPI, the FHFA HPI and the CPI Rental Index. All series are presented as an annual rate of change and are not adjusted for inflation. The FHFA HPI is a quarterly indicator and has been smoothed with a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the inflation-adjusted value of bank real estate loans that are over 30 days past due. While commercial delinquencies are less than twice what they were in 1991, residential delinquencies are over 10 times higher.
This chart illustrates how movement in the ISM Prices Index typically leads changes in the headline Consumer Price Index. The ISM index is much more volatile than the CPI but changes in direction are generally predictive.
The goal of the core CPI is to remove the most volatile cost-push components of the headline number. This creates a series that indicates whether short-term commodity price changes are resulting in more permanent price level pressures. As a result, core CPI is primarily useful as a policy metric rather than a measure of how price changes are affecting the average person.
This chart shows the relationship between non-farm payroll employment and the consumer price index during the stagflationary period of the 1970s and early 1980s. The two series are smoothed using a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the relationship between inflation and unemployment by comparing the consumer price index with non-farm payrolls. Each series is transformed using an annual % change calculation and both are smoothed with a 3-month moving average.