Compares the movement in the real dollar index with gold and oil prices since 1974. The oil and gold series are adjusted for CPI inflation and the real dollar index is adjusted for the relevant trading partners own currency inflation rates.
This chart tracks the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold. The number tells you how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the Dow on any given month. Previous cycle lows have been 1.94 ounces in February of 1933 and 1.29 ounces in January of 1980.
This chart tracks the current and historical ratio of gold prices to silver prices. Historical data goes back to 1915. The 5 year and 10 year moving averages have been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart compares the four largest market bubbles of the last 100 years. It includes the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the 20s, gold in the 70s, technology stocks in the 90s and the recent oil price bubble.
This chart shows the ratio of gold (priced in dollars) to the S&P 500 market index. This ratio is a good indicator of investor confidence in the dollar/fiat currency system. A low ratio signifies high confidence (gold low, S&P high) and a high ratio signals a lack of confidence (gold high, S&P low). The ratio hit its peak of 5.94 back in January of 1980 when gold briefly traded over $800 an ounce.
This chart tracks the the performance of gold since July of 2002 against the three largest bubbles of the last 40 years. Past bubbles have shown strong but steady growth for the first 7-8 years before moving into a hyper-growth phase for the last 18-24 months. Each series is adjusted for inflation and is smoothed with a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the FHFA Housing Index, Gold, Oil and the NASDAQ since 1976. The world financial system moved from the relative discipline of the gold-dollar, fixed-currency standard to a system of free-floating currencies in 1973. This move unleashed a series of asset pricing bubbles over the subsequent decades.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) to the price of gold bullion back to 1983. The 6 and 12 month moving averages have been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.
This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level.
This chart compares the early stage secular bull market in gold that began in April of 2001 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average secular bull market that began back in May of 1982. Since the dow and gold tend to move in a counter-cyclical fashion, it would seem to indicate that the Dow bull market is on its last legs while the gold bull run could have quite a long way to go yet.
This chart tracks the three primary secular cycles of the Dow to Gold ratio, smoothed with a 3-month moving average. The cycles are measured by how many ounces the ratio increased from the previous low. The most striking aspect of this chart is that each previous cycle dropped below zero before hitting bottom.
This chart shows the month-end ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) to the price of gold bullion back to 1996. The 6 month moving average has been added to smooth out volatility and show the longer term trend. The current month shows the latest daily closing values.