Compares the movement in the real dollar index with gold and oil prices since 1974. The oil and gold series are adjusted for CPI inflation and the real dollar index is adjusted for the relevant trading partners own currency inflation rates.
Graph of historical data comparing the three price-adjusted U.S. dollar indices published by the Federal Reserve. Each index is adjusted for the aggregated home inflation rates of all included currencies. The price adjustment is especially important with our Asian and South American trading partners due to their significant inflation episodes of the 80s and 90s.
This chart shows the ratio of gold (priced in dollars) to the S&P 500 market index. This ratio is a good indicator of investor confidence in the dollar/fiat currency system. A low ratio signifies high confidence (gold low, S&P high) and a high ratio signals a lack of confidence (gold high, S&P low). The ratio hit its peak of 5.94 back in January of 1980 when gold briefly traded over $800 an ounce.
This chart shows the inflation adjusted performance of the FHFA Housing Index, Gold, Oil and the NASDAQ since 1976. The world financial system moved from the relative discipline of the gold-dollar, fixed-currency standard to a system of free-floating currencies in 1973. This move unleashed a series of asset pricing bubbles over the subsequent decades.
Compares the annual dollar growth in total new debt (public and private) against the S&P 500 level. This chart illustrates how the 2003-2007 market rally benefited from massive new debt creation, peaking at roughly $4.7 trillion annually in December of 2007. Each series is adjusted for inflation via the headline CPI and smoothed using a 3-month moving average.
This chart shows the CPI-adjusted five year dollar change in total debt and gross domestic product. Since about 1975, the U.S. economy has required more and more new debt to generate an incremental dollar of GDP.
This chart compares the annual dollar issuance of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) with the rise in U.S. housing prices as measured by the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index. The two series are adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and are compared using standard deviation.
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